In order to provide the basis for the combat use of anti-radiation missile, research the kill probability of ground anti-radiation missile. Taking the anti-radiation missile kill probability as example, which is only equipped with impact fuse, the anti-radiation missile penetration process, the shock wave damage model and the damage fragments model are analyzed, the target of anti-radiation missile kill probability is calculated and much of computer simulation is run. The simulation results prove its effectiveness. Blast damage distance from the target is smaller than the fragments’. With the increasing of the shortest distance between the bombing location and the target, decrease the kill probability of the anti-radiation missile impact fuse.