Aiming at the large error problem while using the general time series prediction for lower demand spare parts, this paper builds a prediction model based on Markove and Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the simulation model, this paper using MATLAB platform analyses the Markov property, combines Markov chain with Monte Carlo simulation, gives the algorithms to achieve the Monte Carlo simulation and application for analysis. The results show that, given the rate of spare parts to meet the case, according to the application of the model to predict the sequence of quarterly consumption of such demand in the coming one year, spare parts for the low demand forecast for reference.