基于数据驱动Apriori-RMM的装备采购合同履行风险评估
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1.海军工程大学;2.海军装备部;3.四川九洲电器集团有限责任公司

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Data-driven risk assessment of equipment procurement contract fulfillment based on Apriori-RMM
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Naval University of Engineering

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    摘要:

    针对装备采购合同履行风险评估过程受主观因素影响、风险分析方法未有效挖掘风险间及其与结果间的内在关联机理的问题,提出了一种基于数据驱动的风险评估方法。通过收集装备采购合同履行相关的历史数据形成合同风险数据库;然后采用Apriori算法挖掘数据库中合同风险因素关联规则,依据关联规则构建贝叶斯网络结构,实现合同风险因素关系的可视化,并依此开展风险分析及问题预防;最后提出了一种基于数据驱动Apriori-RMM的风险值计算方法,对单个因素风险进行排序,对合同整体风险进行评估。案例分析验证了模型的可行性和有效性。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problem that the risk assessment process of equipment procurement contract performance is affected by subjective factors, and the risk analysis method does not effectively explore the internal correlation mechanism between risks and results, a data-driven risk assessment method was proposed. By collecting historical data related to the performance of equipment procurement contracts, a contract risk database is formed; Then, the Apriori algorithm is used to mine the association rules of contract risk factors in the database, and the Bayesian network structure is constructed according to the association rules, so as to realize the visualization of the relationship between contract risk factors, and carry out risk analysis and problem prevention accordingly. Finally, a data-driven Apriori-RMM risk value calculation method is proposed, which ranks the risk of individual factors and evaluates the overall risk of the contract. The case study verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-20
  • 录用日期:2024-12-23
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