基于寿命阈值随机性的枪管剩余寿命预测
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作者单位:

1.南京理工大学;2.南京莱斯信息技术股份有限公司

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基金项目:

国防基础科研项目(***装备技术体系设计研究 JCKY2021209B004)


Remaining useful life prediction of gun barrel based on life threshold randomness
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Affiliation:

School of Mechanical Engineering,Nanjing University of Science and Technology

Fund Project:

National Defense Basic Research Project (* * * Equipment Technology System Design Research JCKY2021209B004)

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    摘要:

    针对枪械高可靠、失效数据较少的问题,提出以射弹初速作为枪管退化量的表征,进行枪管剩余寿命预测方法。建立基于非线性Wiener过程的射弹初速退化模型和考虑寿命阈值随机性的枪管剩余寿命预测模型,采用极大似然法和贝叶斯方法进行退化参数和随机失效阈值参数的估计;以某14.5 mm高射机枪为对象,进行分析验证,得到某14.5 mm高射机枪在不同射弹数下的射弹初速估计结果,并对基于线性Wiener过程预测方法、基于非线性Wiener过程预测方法、基于非线性Wiener和随机阈值预测方法的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明:该方法的精度高于其他2种方法,可为大数据背景下枪械可靠性的提升提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Addressing the problem of high reliability and limited failure data of firearms, a method for predicting the remaining life of gun barrels is proposed by using the initial velocity of the projectile as a characterization of the degradation of the barrel. We establish a degradation model for the initial projectile velocity based on a nonlinear Wiener process and create a gun barrel residual lifespan prediction model that takes into consideration the randomness of the life threshold. We employ the maximum likelihood method and Bayesian method for the estimation of degradation parameters and random failure threshold parameters. We conduct an analysis using a 14.5mm anti-aircraft machine gun as our subject. We obtain the estimated initial projectile velocities for a 14.5mm anti-aircraft machine gun under different projectile counts. We compare and analyze the prediction results based on the linear Wiener process prediction method, the nonlinear Wiener process prediction method, and the nonlinear Wiener process with random threshold prediction method. The results indicate that the accuracy of this method is higher than the other two methods, which can provide reference for improving the reliability of firearms in the context of big data.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-14
  • 最后修改日期:2023-12-08
  • 录用日期:2023-11-20
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