针对捕获目标概率在导弹武器系统设计、试验鉴定、作战效能评估等方面的重要性，提出一种反舰导弹 捕获目标概率的仿真计算方法。分析影响反舰导弹导引头一次开机捕获概率的主要因素并给出其分布规律，建立导 引头搜索范围计算模型；基于该方法进行反舰导弹捕获概率的算例分析，分析各因素对捕获概率的影响。仿真算例 结果表明：该方法能简便有效地计算反舰导弹捕获目标概率，可应用于反舰导弹性能分析、命中评估等场合。
Aiming at the importance of target acquisition probability in missile weapon system design, test and evaluation, operational effectiveness evaluation, a simulation calculation method of anti-ship missile target acquisition probability was proposed. The main factors affecting the acquisition probability of the anti-ship missile seeker are analyzed and the distribution law is given, and the calculation model of the search range of the seeker is established. Based on this method, the acquisition probability of the anti-ship missile is analyzed, and the influence of each factor on the acquisition probability is analyzed. The simulation results show that the method can calculate the probability of anti-ship missile capturing the target simply and effectively, and can be applied to anti-ship missile performance analysis, hit evaluation and other occasions.